Psychology & Behavior
Section 1
Core Idea
Appeal to novelty is the assumption that newer is better — that the latest idea, tool, or method is superior because it is recent. Recency is mistaken for progress. The core idea: novelty is not evidence of quality; some of the best ideas are old, and some new ones are worse. Evaluate by merit and track record, not by date.
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Section 2
How to See It
Product & Tech
You're seeing Appeal to Novelty when teams adopt a new framework, language, or stack because it's "current" and drop what works. The justification is "we're modernising," not "we measured improvement."
Strategy & Investing
You're seeing Appeal to Novelty when a trend or asset is favoured because it's "the new thing" and incumbents are dismissed as legacy. Newness is conflated with advantage.
Section 3
How to Use It
When evaluating an option, separate "new" from "better." Ask: what evidence do we have that the new approach outperforms? Use the Lindy effect as a check: things that have lasted often have more runway. Adopt novelty when there is clear benefit, not when novelty is the selling point.
Decision filter
"Are we choosing this because it's new or because it's better? If the main argument is recency, we're in appeal-to-novelty territory."
As a founder
Test new tools and methods on merit and outcomes. Avoid rebasing strategy or stack on novelty alone. When someone pushes "the new way," ask for the comparison and the evidence.
Section 5
Founders & Leaders
Bill CampbellCoach to Jobs, Schmidt, Page; former Intuit CEO
Campbell valued fundamentals and people over fads. He pushed leaders to get the basics right before chasing the new. Founders can apply this by resisting appeal to novelty in process and strategy — adopt change when it's proven better, not when it's just new.
Section 7
Connected Models
Reinforces
Pro-innovation Bias
We tend to assume innovations will succeed and underweight their downsides. Pro-innovation bias is appeal to novelty applied to inventions and change. Both warn: new ≠ better.
Reinforces
Recency Illusion
We overweight recent events and assume they're representative. Recency illusion makes the newest thing feel more important. Pair with appeal to novelty to correct for "latest = best."
Tension
Lindy Effect
Lindy suggests that what has lasted is more likely to keep lasting. The tension: appeal to novelty favours the new; Lindy favours the old. Use Lindy to balance — don't adopt or reject solely on age.
Section 8
One Key Quote
— C.S. Lewis"Every age has its own outlook. It is especially good at seeing certain truths and especially liable to make certain mistakes. We all, therefore, need the books that will correct the characteristic mistakes of our own period."
Section 11
Summary & Further Reading
Appeal to novelty is assuming newer is better. Counter it by evaluating on merit and evidence, not recency. Use the Lindy effect to balance; adopt novelty when it's demonstrably better, not because it's new.