Projection Bias

You're seeing it when a founder insists a feature is essential because they would use it — without validating that actual customers share the need. The assumption that "I want this, so users must want this" is projection bias in product form.

You're seeing it when a negotiator assumes the other party values the same terms they do. You offer equity thinking it's generous; they wanted cash. You emphasise speed; they care about quality. The projection creates misalignment that both sides misread.

Never ship a feature based solely on your own enthusiasm. Validate with five real users before committing resources. For strategic decisions, deliberately seek input from people with different backgrounds, preferences, and constraints than your own — their disagreement is data about the limits of your projection.

Hastings navigated one of the most consequential projection bias traps in business history. When Netflix shifted from DVD-by-mail to streaming, the existing customer base loved DVDs. Hastings had to resist projecting current customer preferences onto the future — and resist projecting his own conviction about streaming onto customers who weren't ready. The botched Qwikster split in 2011 was a case where projection bias overcorrected: Hastings assumed customers would separate their preferences as cleanly as he had in his mind. The backlash taught him that customers' mental models differed from his own. For founders, Hastings demonstrates that vision requires seeing beyond your own current state — but executing on that vision requires understanding that others aren't where you are yet.