Fighting the Last War

You're seeing Fighting the Last War when a company's strategy is essentially "do what worked before, but more" — doubling down on the same channels, the same product model, the same competitive posture — without questioning whether the underlying dynamics have changed.

You're seeing Fighting the Last War when an incumbent responds to a disruptive competitor by improving the old product instead of engaging with the new model. They're optimising for the previous game.

Your biggest risk after early success is assuming the same playbook works forever. Schedule regular strategy reviews that explicitly question inherited assumptions. Hire people from adjacent industries who see your market with fresh eyes. The playbook that got you here may not get you there.

Hastings avoided fighting the last war twice. First, he recognised that Netflix's DVD-by-mail business — despite its success — was optimised for a world that streaming would replace, so he cannibalised his own model before competitors could. Second, when streaming became competitive, he shifted Netflix into original content rather than fighting a licensing war on others' terms. Each pivot required abandoning a winning strategy before it stopped winning. Founders can apply this by asking: "If we were starting today, would we build what we have?" If the answer is no, you're at risk of fighting the last war. The hardest strategic move is abandoning what's working before it stops working.