Decision playbook
Make Better Decisions
A practical library for making consequential calls with incomplete information, conflicting incentives, and limited time.
Move from instinct to a repeatable decision process using models, operators, companies, and tools that expose what matters.
Thinking tools
Start with the core models
Frame the problem, inspect downstream effects, and assign probabilities before committing.
People
Study decision-makers
See how exceptional operators made irreversible bets and protected optionality.
Businesses
See the systems in practice
Compare organizations whose operating models encode distinct decision rules.
Guides and paths
Put the ideas to work
Turn the library into a sequence you can apply to a live decision.
- Nespresso: growth and profitSeparate organic and reported growth, then test a fictional customer cohort.
- Buying versus paying for serviceCompare a fictional 36-month purchase with a service plan, then change the assumptions.
- How to make better decisionsA step-by-step decision practice.
- Decision-making reading listThe strongest books for judgment under uncertainty.
Frequently asked questions
- Where should I start if a decision is urgent?
- Write down the decision, separate reversible from irreversible choices, run a quick inversion, and identify the most important second-order effect.
- How should I use this hub?
- Start with one thinking model, compare two operator examples, then use the guide to apply the ideas to a decision you are making now.