Decisions are the unit of output for leaders, investors, and builders—and most people never study the mechanics. FTN's 43 decision tools exist because frameworks compound: pre-mortems, reference classes, and inversion protect judgment from the biases Kahneman catalogued. This list supplies the books, essays, and talks behind those tools.
Foundational Books
Thinking in Bets
Annie Duke · Book · Amazon
Poker metaphors for separating signal from noise in decisions—essential starting point.
Thinking, Fast and Slow
Daniel Kahneman · Book · Amazon
System 1/2 framework and the bias catalogue—dense but foundational.
Decisive
Chip Heath and Dan Heath · Book
WRAP process for practical decision-making—lighter touch than Kahneman.
Superforecasting
Philip E. Tetlock · Book
Forecasting as learnable skill with explicit updating—complements bias work.
Naturalistic and Expert Judgment
Sources of Power
Gary Klein · Book
Recognition-primed decision-making—when intuition works (experienced pattern matchers under time pressure).
Essays and Speeches
Munger: Psychology of Human Misjudgment
Charlie Munger · Speech
Compressed checklist of psychological tendencies—operationalised decision protection.
Bezos on reversible vs irreversible decisions
Jeff Bezos · Letter
Type 1 vs Type 2 decisions—speed when reversible, deliberation when not.