Garbage In Garbage Out

You're seeing it when a company builds an elaborate forecasting model but feeds it self-reported sales pipeline data that reps inflate to look busy. The model is sophisticated; the inputs are garbage; the forecasts are worthless.

You're seeing it when a strategic plan is built on market research that sampled the wrong customer segment. Every conclusion downstream inherits the input error, and no amount of rigorous analysis fixes the flawed foundation.

Audit the data sources that inform your biggest decisions. Customer feedback channels, financial reporting, product analytics — trace each back to collection methods. Most decision-making errors don't come from bad reasoning; they come from reasoning well on bad data.

Buffett's investment discipline is built on input quality. He famously ignores Wall Street analyst estimates, macroeconomic forecasts, and market sentiment — all inputs he considers garbage for long-term investing decisions. Instead, he insists on reading primary sources: annual reports, 10-Ks, direct conversations with management. His circle of competence framework is essentially a GIGO filter — stay where your inputs are reliable. When Buffett can't get clean inputs on a business, he doesn't invest, no matter how attractive the surface numbers look. Founders should apply the same rigour: the quality of your decisions is capped by the quality of your information. Invest in getting the inputs right before building elaborate analysis on top of them.