Sturgeon's Law

Ninety percent of everything is crap. Theodore Sturgeon, the science-fiction writer, said it when defending his genre: when people said "90% of science fiction is crud," he replied that 90% of everything is crud — science fiction is no worse than anything else. Sturgeon's Law is the observation that in any large body of work, output, or options, the majority will be mediocre or worse. The implication is not despair; it's calibration. Don't expect most of what you encounter to be good. Plan for the need to filter. The same law applies to ideas, products, hires, deals, and content: most of what exists is in the long tail of mediocrity. The skill is finding the 10% that isn't.

The law is a useful prior. When you enter a new market, a new feed, or a new pipeline, assume most of what you see will be low quality. Allocate your attention and your bar accordingly. Don't let the 90% convince you that the whole category is worthless; the 10% may be exceptional. Don't let one great example convince you the whole category is great; the 90% is still there. Sturgeon's Law also tempers criticism of any field: if you think your domain is uniquely bad, remember that every domain is mostly bad. The difference is how well you filter and how high you set the bar.

In strategy and operations, the law suggests that quality control and curation are always necessary. You can't assume quality will average out. You need selection — hiring bars, product bars, deal bars — to get to the good 10%. The law also explains why recommendation systems, editors, and gatekeepers have value: they help people navigate the 90% to find the 10%.