December 18, 2024
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Anne Dinning, Disconfirming Evidence and Facing Fear of Failure
At a glance
This edition is brought to you by Long Angle
Good morning to all new and old readers! Here is your Wednesday edition of Faster Than Normal, exploring one short story about a person, a company, a high-performance tool, a trend I’m watching closely, and curated media to help you build businesses, wealth, and the most important asset of all: yourself.
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Today’s edition:
> Stories: Anne Dinning & John Deere
> High-performance: Disconfirming Evidence
> Insights: Life’s challenges
> Tactical: Facing fear of failure
> 1 Question: Change readiness
Cheers,
Alex
P.S. Send me feedback on how we can improve. I respond to every email.
Stories of Excellence
Person: Anne Dinning
Anne Dinning is a mathematical whiz who became a pioneering figure in quantitative finance. She joined D.E. Shaw & Co. in 1990, fresh out of college. Her talent for developing complex trading algorithms quickly propelled her to partner status. Dinning helped grow the firm from a small startup to a global investment powerhouse managing over $50 billion in assets. She took a break in 2005 to focus on philanthropy but returned in 2007 as managing director. "I love the intellectual challenge of trying to find patterns in financial data," Dinning once said. Her work has revolutionized how hedge funds use computer models to trade. Today, she continues to shape the future of quantitative investing at D.E. Shaw.
Key Lessons from Anne Dinning:
On persistence: "Success in this field requires constant learning and adaptation. The markets are always changing, so we have to keep evolving our models."
On work-life balance: "Taking time away from work can actually improve your performance. It gives you fresh perspectives."
Company: John Deere
John Deere was founded in 1837 by blacksmith John Deere in Grand Detour, Illinois. Deere, who had previously worked in his father's tailor shop, invented the self-scouring steel plow that year. This innovation revolutionized farming in the Midwest by cutting through sticky prairie soil more efficiently than cast-iron plows. In 1838, Deere partnered with Leonard Andrus to produce more plows, manufacturing 10 that year and 40 in 1839. By 1841, production reached 75-100 plows annually. In 1843, Deere ended his partnership with Andrus and moved operations to Moline, Illinois, to take advantage of water power and transportation offered by the Mississippi River. The company was incorporated as Deere & Company in 1868.
Key Lessons from John Deere:
On timing. Deere launched his company just as the American frontier was expanding westward. Farmers were moving into the prairie lands, encountering new soil types that existing tools couldn't handle. Right product, right time. Timing matters.
On branding. In 1876, Deere registered the "leaping deer" trademark. This simple, recognizable logo has become one of the most iconic in American business. It's been largely unchanged for over 140 years. Consistency builds recognition.
On customer education. Deere published "The Furrow" magazine in 1895, providing farmers with agricultural tips and information about new technology. It's still published today, with a circulation of 1.5 million in 40 countries. Educate your customers. They'll reward you with loyalty.
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Disconfirming Evidence
Disconfirming evidence is a concept from scientific thinking, emphasizing the importance of seeking out information that contradicts our beliefs. As physicist Richard Feynman said, "The first principle is that you must not fool yourself—and you are the easiest person to fool." It's about actively challenging our assumptions.
Seeking disconfirming evidence is crucial because it helps us avoid confirmation bias and make more objective decisions. In business, it can lead to better risk assessment, more robust strategies, and increased innovation.
What beliefs or assumptions in your business haven't you challenged lately? How might you seek out disconfirming evidence?
Insights
Helen Keller on embracing life's challenges:
"Security is mostly a superstition. It does not exist in nature, nor do the children of men as a whole experience it. Avoiding danger is no safer in the long run than outright exposure. Life is either a daring adventure, or nothing."—Helen Keller, American author, political activist, and lecturer who was the first deafblind person to earn a Bachelor of Arts degree
Tactical reads
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> When facing fear of failure in pursuing your objectives
How to Overcome Your Fear of Failure with The Bucky Method (Read it here)
> When seeking insights on effective leadership practices
Notes on leadership by Ben Horowitz (Read it here)
1 question
When was a time in the past you successfully adapted and made a change? What is a change you would benefit from making right now?
That’s all for today, folks. As always, please give me your feedback. Which section is your favourite? What do you want to see more or less of? Other suggestions? Please let me know.
Have a wonderful rest of week, all.
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Alex Brogan
Find me on X, LinkedIn, YouTube, Instagram, TikTok
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